Orient were not unlucky in the broad performance sense. The attack barely arrived, the midfield did not connect the team, and too many possessions ended as hopeful exits or emergency defending.
This was not mainly a finishing story. Orient did not create enough repeatable attacking volume for the forwards to change the match.
The event profile points to a gap between defence and attack. Possession had to travel too far before it became pressure, and central progression was not reliable enough.
The ball was either recycled without enough progression or sent long without enough success. That is how defenders start playing anxious football.
Orient did win balls high, but the next action was not clean enough. Pressing only changes matches when the regain becomes a chance or territorial lock.
The volume and shot quality against point to repeated emergency defending. That is different from a controlled low block absorbing harmless territory.
The event profile flagged low-block/back-five review phases at 0-15, 16-30, 46-60, 76-90+.
When Orient broke a central line, the next sequence reached the box or produced a shot on 0/1 occasions.
Wide entries became box/shot sequences at 29%; central entries did so at 50%.
High regains became a shot, box entry or final-third entry on 1/16 occasions.
Only 9/41 pass entries became immediate danger, but the opposition still produced 16 shots and 1.54 xG.
This moves the report from "events happened here" to "when this trigger occurred, this was the next useful or dangerous outcome". It is the evidence board for repeatable coaching points.
This flags whether Orient's event profile became deeper, more direct, or more defensively crowded by phase. It is a formation clue, not proof; the clip check confirms the actual shape.
| Phase | Orient Height | Opp Height | Def. Height | Deep Actors | Wide Deep | Direct Passes | High Regains | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-15 | 45.2 | 45.4 | 34.1 | 6 | 5 | 30% | 1 | Back-five/low-block review |
| 16-30 | 38.0 | 50.2 | 33.3 | 8 | 8 | 17% | 3 | Back-five/low-block review |
| 31-45 | 42.6 | 43.3 | 39.0 | 8 | 8 | 31% | 5 | Direct exit phase |
| 46-60 | 42.0 | 45.4 | 32.5 | 7 | 6 | 23% | 3 | Back-five/low-block review |
| 61-75 | 39.2 | 49.5 | 39.9 | 7 | 7 | 33% | 3 | Territory dropped |
| 76-90+ | 40.9 | 50.4 | 32.5 | 9 | 8 | 27% | 1 | Back-five/low-block review |
Use this table for claims such as "Orient dropped deeper", "the press faded", or "the team stopped trusting build-up". A back-five read requires video confirmation, but the event signature can tell us where to look.
Orient had the higher net positional passing value after deductions. Review whether that came from useful progression or lower lost value; this alone does not establish better chance creation.
Orient did not win the line-break battle. Review bravery and timing around the first central receiver.
The press found contact but not enough payoff. Clip the next two actions after every regain.
There were transition leaks, but they were mostly contained before becoming major danger.
Share of all final-third event volume owned by Orient. This is a better control proxy than raw possession.
Average Orient event location on the x-axis. Higher means the game was played closer to the opposition goal.
| Metric | Orient | Opponent / Against | Orient Median | Sample | Read | What It Means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Threat Balance | 4.6 | -24.8 | -2.0 | 61 | Above Orient baseline. | Orient minus opposition net positional passing value, including failed-pass costs and negative completed moves. Not a calibrated goal model or standalone result predictor. |
| Line Breaks | -10 | +11 | -3 | 61 | Below desired baseline. | Central vertical passes that broke useful pitch lines versus those allowed. |
| Press Payoff | 6% | 20% | 17% | 61 | Below desired baseline. | Share of high regains that became a shot, box entry or final-third entry. |
| Rest Defence | 0 | - | 0 | 61 | In normal Orient range. | Advanced Orient losses that became opposition box or shot danger. |
| Final-Third Tilt | 41% | 59% | 48% | 61 | Below desired baseline. | Share of final-third event volume owned by Orient. |
| Average Event Height | 41.5 | 47.5 | 42.9 | 61 | In normal Orient range. | Average Orient event location on the x-axis. It is a territory indicator, not automatically a quality indicator. |
| Territory To Box | 29% | 16% | 22% | 61 | Above Orient baseline. | Share of final-third entries that became box entries. |
Historical context loaded from 61 usable Orient event samples. Reads compare this match against Orient's own median, not a generic league assumption.
Average event height and final-third tilt are territory indicators. They become meaningful only when checked against Orient's own baseline, the opponent's match profile, and whether territory became box access, shots, or transition exposure.
This suggests Orient either dropped too deep, lost control after changes, or became exposed while chasing/recovering the game.
That combination suggests Orient kept the ball in deeper areas without consistently finding the first pass through pressure.
If the team's actions are happening too far from goal, possession has to travel further before it can become pressure.
If long exits fail repeatedly, the front line cannot breathe and the defence faces repeat waves.
Orient may be reaching territory without enough central occupation to create high-value chances.
The press may have won moments without the next action being clean enough to punish the opponent.
The match pattern may have shifted from early initiative to late survival.
| Phase | Orient xG | Opp xG | Orient Shots | Opp Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-15 | 0.19 | 0.14 | 3 | 2 |
| 16-30 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 0 | 4 |
| 31-45 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 1 | 2 |
| 46-60 | 0.14 | 0.02 | 2 | 1 |
| 61-75 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 0 | 3 |
| 76-90+ | 0.04 | 0.64 | 1 | 4 |
This checks whether the match changed by phase: early control, late collapse, or isolated big chances.
| Player | Leaks | Danger Leaks | xG Against After Loss | Minute Span |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Gilbert | 2 | 0 | 0.00 | 33'-41' |
| Y. Akhamrich | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | 24'-24' |
| W. Forrester | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | 56'-56' |
| F. Stevens | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | 63'-63' |
| S. Clare | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | 65'-65' |
| I. El Mizouni | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | 73'-73' |
This identifies the source event for dangerous transition leaks. It is a clipping queue, not a blame table.
| Signal | Orient | Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| Deep low-progression pass share | 60% | 41% |
| Side/back completed pass share | 61% | 58% |
| Progressive pass rate | 21% | 29% |
| Line-break rate | 0.4% | 3.8% |
| Failed long/direct passes | 73/101 | 78/138 |
| Central completed pass share | 28% | 24% |
This is the check for claims like "too deep", "too safe around the back", or "direct exits did not stick".
The report is no longer just describing the match. Every key claim now has a video queue behind it: goals, big chances, transition leaks, high-regain payoff and line-breaking possession.
Use this section as the coaching audit: does the event-data diagnosis survive the actual body shape, support angle, pressure and recovery run on the video?
Orient loss by Y. Akhamrich led to progression within the next sequence.
Open MP4Orient loss by A. Gilbert led to progression within the next sequence.
Open MP4Orient loss by A. Gilbert led to progression within the next sequence.
Open MP4Orient loss by W. Forrester led to progression within the next sequence.
Open MP4Orient loss by F. Stevens led to progression within the next sequence.
Open MP4Orient loss by S. Clare led to progression within the next sequence.
Open MP4Orient loss by I. El Mizouni led to progression within the next sequence.
Open MP4Central/progressive line-break pass by I. Hayden. Net passing threat +22.1.
Open MP4Orient did not separate from the opposition in progression. That normally means the first central receiver, support angle or centre-back pass speed needs review.
There is a territory-to-box warning. Getting up the pitch is not enough if the next action cannot access the box.
The high-regain signal supports the Wellens pressing identity. The next layer is whether those regains became shots before the block reset.
Red shows progressive passes, teal shows final-third entries, and gold shows box entries. This is the quickest view of whether possession became threat or just circulation.
Node size reflects involvement. Red nodes are players with repeated progressive contribution. Links are inferred from completed passes and the next same-team event in the feed.
Positional passing proxy v2, in points (value ×100), not expected goals. Completed passes earn destination minus start value, including negatives. Failed, blocked and offside passes with a known failure outcome lose their starting value; we do not add an assumed opponent counterattack cost. Cells show Orient minus opposition net value: completions at destination, failures at origin. Missing/invalid coordinates and unknown outcomes are excluded. Carries and take-ons are outside this pass-only model. Both sides assume increasing x is forward. Scored passes: Orient 392/402; opposition 441/447.
Only vertical passes through useful central lanes are shown. This isolates whether Orient actually broke the game open or simply moved around the outside.
Lane-by-lane split of pass volume, progressive actions, entries and threat added. This makes the attacking identity visible rather than relying on eye-test memory.
Each high regain is tagged by the next attacking outcome: shot, box access, final-third entry, retention or loss. Work rate only matters if the next action has value.
Advanced Orient losses are connected to the opposition danger that followed. This is the rest-defence audit: where attacks died and what came back.
| Start | Origin | Events | Prog | Box | xG | Net threat | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50:26 | Final third / Central | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.13 | -0.28 | Shot |
| 12:10 | Build-up / Right half-space | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.50 | Shot |
| 13:27 | Final third / Left half-space | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | Shot |
| 33:06 | Final third / Left half-space | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | Shot |
| 78:38 | Progression / Right half-space | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.85 | Shot |
| 4:26 | Final third / Left half-space | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | Shot |
| 52:55 | Final third / Central | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | Shot |
| 50:14 | Progression / Right touchline | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.72 | Box entry |
Chains are inferred from consecutive same-team events. This is not a possession model replacement, but it is strong enough to find the attacks worth clipping first.
| Player | Events | Net threat | Line Breaks | Box Actions | High Regains | Shot Chain Actions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Baxter | 64 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| J. Olowu | 56 | -11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| D. Scarlett | 16 | -13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| J. Kabia | 46 | -46 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 |
| A. Dobra | 16 | -42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| T. Springett | 54 | -58 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 |
| I. Hayden | 72 | -144 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| P. Chinedu | 106 | -149 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| W. Forrester | 76 | -161 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Y. Akhamrich | 57 | -168 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
This compares net passing value with positive intended passing gain, in points per 90. Both axes exclude carries and take-ons. Failed passes deduct starting value and backwards value changes remain negative; the solid horizontal line marks zero. The ratio labelled net/attempted can be negative and is not a completion probability. Wide isolation players can sit in the high-attempt/low-return quadrant without automatically being poor: the question is whether their risk is structurally necessary, well-supported and creating downstream instability. Short samples are lighter and should be used mainly as clipping prompts.
Inferred 95 mins; starter/full-match estimate from event timeline.
Do not read the low net passing threat as simple underperformance. This is a high-risk wide role: the player is trying to access value through crosses or ambitious passes, so the video question is decision quality and support timing.
Inferred 95 mins; starter/full-match estimate from event timeline.
Do not read the low net passing threat as simple underperformance. This is a high-risk wide role: the player is trying to access value through crosses or ambitious passes, so the video question is decision quality and support timing.
Inferred 95 mins; starter/full-match estimate from event timeline.
High chaos profile: the ambition is real, but the loss rate is high enough to require video review.
Inferred 30 mins; substitute-sized sample. Compare rates, but validate the role on video.
High chaos profile: the ambition is real, but the loss rate is high enough to require video review.
| Player | Inferred Role | Mins | Net passing threat | Attempted passing threat | Attempted /90 | Realised /90 | Ambition Gap /90 | Role Adj. /90 | Net / attempted | Adventurous | Turnovers | Quadrant |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Chinedu | Build-up defender | 95 | -149.3 | 763.9 | 726.0 | -141.9 | 867.8 | +5.7 | -20% | 47 | 32 | High attempt / high return |
| A. Gilbert | Wide isolation attacker | 95 | -612.6 | 684.8 | 650.8 | -582.2 | 1233.0 | -361.8 | -89% | 25 | 22 | High attempt / low return |
| N. Baxter | Build-up defender | 95 | 19.7 | 684.3 | 650.3 | 18.7 | 631.6 | +166.3 | 3% | 22 | 19 | High attempt / high return |
| F. Stevens | Build-up defender | 95 | -177.9 | 514.8 | 489.3 | -169.1 | 658.4 | -21.5 | -35% | 27 | 16 | High attempt / low return |
| S. Clare | Support player | 30 | -169.2 | 147.3 | 446.2 | -512.4 | 958.7 | -156.5 | -115% | 11 | 8 | High attempt / low return |
| Y. Akhamrich | Wide isolation attacker | 95 | -168.5 | 320.9 | 305.0 | -160.1 | 465.1 | +60.3 | -53% | 27 | 17 | High attempt / low return |
| T. Springett | Wide connector | 76 | -58.2 | 205.5 | 244.7 | -69.2 | 313.9 | -4.2 | -28% | 16 | 10 | Low attempt / efficient return |
| W. Forrester | Build-up defender | 95 | -161.3 | 224.4 | 213.2 | -153.3 | 366.5 | -5.7 | -72% | 18 | 11 | Low attempt / efficient return |
| I. El Mizouni | Wide isolation attacker | 95 | -295.3 | 216.0 | 205.2 | -280.7 | 485.9 | -60.3 | -137% | 22 | 14 | Low attempt / low return |
| A. Dobra | Support player | 19 | -41.7 | 62.4 | 298.5 | -199.4 | 497.9 | +156.5 | -67% | 6 | 3 | High attempt / low return |
| I. Hayden | Build-up defender | 65 | -143.8 | 130.3 | 180.4 | -199.2 | 379.6 | -51.6 | -110% | 19 | 11 | Low attempt / low return |
| J. Olowu | Build-up defender | 95 | -10.5 | 164.2 | 156.0 | -10.0 | 166.0 | +137.6 | -6% | 14 | 6 | Low attempt / efficient return |
Quadrants and role adjustment are minutes-normalised. Raw totals still matter, but short substitute samples should be treated as clipping prompts rather than firm judgements.
| Player | Events | Completed Passes | Progressive Passes | Entries | Defensive Actions | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Chinedu | 106 | 32 | 9 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| A. Gilbert | 82 | 25 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| I. El Mizouni | 79 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 2 |
| W. Forrester | 76 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
| F. Stevens | 73 | 27 | 8 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| I. Hayden | 72 | 27 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| N. Baxter | 64 | 17 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Y. Akhamrich | 57 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| J. Olowu | 56 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| T. Springett | 54 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 1 |