Cardiff City vs Leyton Orient

2025-10-04 Orient perspective 1709 match-play events 227 reportable incidents Expected-goals feed merged. xG coverage: 42/42 shots; xGOT coverage: 42/42 shots. Signed passing threat proxy · v2

Match Control Board

Passes448Opp 382

Pass Completion73%Opp 72%

Progressive Passes69Opp 72

Final Third Entries25Opp 26

Box Entries7Opp 6

Shots26Opp 16

xG4.09Opp 2.73

xGOT4.04Opp 2.70

High Regains38Opp 10

Performance Verdict

Reality checkStable process with isolated review points

The data does not support a dramatic verdict. The coaching focus should be on the specific weak patterns rather than the whole performance.

poor signalBuild-up became hesitant, then hopeful

The ball was either recycled without enough progression or sent long without enough success. That is how defenders start playing anxious football.

Evidence: 48% of completed deep passes were low-progression; 56 of 97 long/direct attempts failed.
Video Check: Clip every deep possession of four or more passes and every failed long exit. Separate bad pass choice from no midfield option.

bad signalDefending was clumsy, not just busy

The volume and shot quality against point to repeated emergency defending. That is different from a controlled low block absorbing harmless territory.

Evidence: Conceded 16 shots, 2.73 xG and 2.70 xGOT.
Video Check: Clip every opposition shot and tag the source: failed clearance, second ball, foul/set piece, runner lost or midfield screen missing.

Bottom-Line Pattern Board

warning signalOrient's defensive shape became deeper and wider late

Defensive action height dropped from 51.3 to 26.8, while deep defensive actors rose from 6.2 to 10.3.

Bottom line: This is the data signature worth checking for a back-five/low-block shift: more bodies acting deep, especially if wide deep actors also rise.
Clip check: Freeze the first defensive possession in each phase and count the last line plus wide midfield recovery positions.

warning signalLine breaks are not being supported well enough

When Orient broke a central line, the next sequence reached the box or produced a shot on 2/7 occasions.

Bottom line: The first pass through pressure is happening, but the next action is not reliably turning it into box access.
Clip check: Check the third-man support around the receiver: was the runner close enough and was the next pass available?

warning signalWide territory is not enough by itself

Wide entries became box/shot sequences at 27%; central entries did so at 71%.

Bottom line: This is the classic false comfort: Orient get up the side of the pitch, but without central occupation or cutback access the attack stalls.
Clip check: Review whether the far-side winger, 10 and nearest 8 arrive in time when the ball reaches the wide player.

warning signalThe press needs a cleaner first pass

High regains became a shot, box entry or final-third entry on 12/38 occasions.

Bottom line: The first action after the regain is the coaching point; effort is only valuable if the next pass punishes the opponent.
Clip check: Clip the first two actions after each high regain: support distance, body shape and runner timing decide whether the press pays off.

warning signalInitial entries were contained, but defending still leaked shots

Only 9/31 pass entries became immediate danger, but the opposition still produced 16 shots and 2.73 xG.

Bottom line: The damage likely came after the first contact: second balls, set plays, fouls, failed clearances or loose marking after the initial entry.
Clip check: Review the first Orient action after the entry: clear contact, forced backwards pass, or only passive pressure.

Trigger Outcome Evidence

This moves the report from "events happened here" to "when this trigger occurred, this was the next useful or dangerous outcome". It is the evidence board for repeatable coaching points.

Style Shift By Phase

This flags whether Orient's event profile became deeper, more direct, or more defensively crowded by phase. It is a formation clue, not proof; the clip check confirms the actual shape.

Phase Style Audit

Phase	Orient Height	Opp Height	Def. Height	Deep Actors	Wide Deep	Direct Passes	High Regains	Read
0-15	50.2	36.5	69.8	3	2	22%	14	High press phase
16-30	53.4	32.3	61.6	5	1	19%	9	High press phase
31-45	42.3	48.0	26.0	10	9	15%	5	Back-five/low-block review
46-60	60.0	22.8	55.0	4	3	26%	3	High press phase
61-75	32.6	53.6	11.1	11	5	29%	4	Back-five/low-block review
76-90+	42.0	43.5	34.1	10	9	25%	3	Back-five/low-block review

Use this table for claims such as "Orient dropped deeper", "the press faded", or "the team stopped trusting build-up". A back-five read requires video confirmation, but the event signature can tell us where to look.

Control Diagnostics

Threat Balance-2.28Opp: -12.4 | Orient median: -0.5 (61) | Below desired baseline.

The opposition had the higher net positional passing value after deductions. Inspect the contributions from completed moves and unsuccessful passes before attributing the difference to tactical control.

Line Breaks+2Opp: +5 | Orient median: -3 (61) | Above Orient baseline.

Orient broke more vertical lanes than the opponent. That points to a functioning first-progression mechanism.

Press Payoff12/38Opp: 40% | Orient median: 15% (61) | Above Orient baseline.

The press found contact but not enough payoff. Clip the next two actions after every regain.

Rest Defence0Orient median: 0 (61) | In normal Orient range.

There were transition leaks, but they were mostly contained before becoming major danger.

Final-Third Tilt60%Opp: 40% | Orient median: 48% (61) | Above Orient baseline.

Share of all final-third event volume owned by Orient. This is a better control proxy than raw possession.

Average Event Height47Opp: 40.5 | Orient median: 42.8 (61) | Above Orient baseline.

Average Orient event location on the x-axis. Higher means the game was played closer to the opposition goal.

Benchmark Lens

Versus What?

Metric	Orient	Opponent / Against	Orient Median	Sample	Read	What It Means
Threat Balance	-2.3	-12.4	-0.5	61	Below desired baseline.	Orient minus opposition net positional passing value, including failed-pass costs and negative completed moves. Not a calibrated goal model or standalone result predictor.
Line Breaks	+2	+5	-3	61	Above Orient baseline.	Central vertical passes that broke useful pitch lines versus those allowed.
Press Payoff	32%	40%	15%	61	Above Orient baseline.	Share of high regains that became a shot, box entry or final-third entry.
Rest Defence	0	-	0	61	In normal Orient range.	Advanced Orient losses that became opposition box or shot danger.
Final-Third Tilt	60%	40%	48%	61	Above Orient baseline.	Share of final-third event volume owned by Orient.
Average Event Height	47.2	40.5	42.8	61	Above Orient baseline.	Average Orient event location on the x-axis. It is a territory indicator, not automatically a quality indicator.
Territory To Box	28%	23%	22%	61	Above Orient baseline.	Share of final-third entries that became box entries.

Historical context loaded from 61 usable Orient event samples. Reads compare this match against Orient's own median, not a generic league assumption.

Average event height and final-third tilt are territory indicators. They become meaningful only when checked against Orient's own baseline, the opponent's match profile, and whether territory became box access, shots, or transition exposure.

Statistical Inference: Why?

High confidenceThe game appears to have tilted late

This suggests Orient either dropped too deep, lost control after changes, or became exposed while chasing/recovering the game.

Signal: Opposition generated 1.40 xG from 61' onwards, 51% of their match xG.
Video question: Review the first pass out after 60', midfield distances, and whether substitutions changed the team's ability to secure second balls.
Caveat: Late xG can be score-state driven. If Orient were chasing, some risk is expected.

Medium confidenceDirect exits may not have stuck

If long exits fail repeatedly, the front line cannot breathe and the defence faces repeat waves.

Signal: 56 of 97 long/direct pass attempts failed.
Video question: Check whether long passes were planned outlets, pressure clearances, or poor pass selection.
Caveat: Some failed long balls are acceptable if they turn the opponent and allow the block to reset.

Medium confidenceScoreline includes low-probability finishing noise

A low-xG goal can make the performance look worse than the repeatable chance process.

Signal: Opposition scored 1 goal from <=0.08 xG at 51:56.
Video question: Treat the finish as a separate incident, then check whether the shot was still allowed too easily.
Caveat: Low xG does not mean no defensive error; it means the shot itself is rarely scored from that location/type.

Phase xG Audit

Phase	Orient xG	Opp xG	Orient Shots	Opp Shots
0-15	0.58	0.07	4	2
16-30	1.08	0.93	7	2
31-45	0.21	0.25	2	3
46-60	0.92	0.08	6	1
61-75	0.42	0.85	2	4
76-90+	0.88	0.55	5	4

This checks whether the match changed by phase: early control, late collapse, or isolated big chances.

Player Leak Responsibility

Player	Leaks	Minute Span
S. Clare	2	23'-74'
C. Wellens	1	27'-27'
T. Bakinson	1	40'-40'
J. Koroma	1	92'-92'

This identifies the source event for dangerous transition leaks. It is a clipping queue, not a blame table.

Build-Up And Circulation Audit

Signal	Orient	Opponent
Deep low-progression pass share	48%	59%
Side/back completed pass share	62%	60%
Progressive pass rate	21%	26%
Line-break rate	2.1%	1.8%
Failed long/direct passes	56/97	48/103
Central completed pass share	30%	30%

This is the check for claims like "too deep", "too safe around the back", or "direct exits did not stick".

The Plain-English Read

Progression-3

Orient did not separate from the opposition in progression. That normally means the first central receiver, support angle or centre-back pass speed needs review.

Box Access+1

The final-third work became penalty-area access often enough to call the attacking process alive.

High Press+28

The high-regain signal supports the Wellens pressing identity. The next layer is whether those regains became shots before the block reset.

With The Ball

Pass Map

Red shows progressive passes, teal shows final-third entries, and gold shows box entries. This is the quickest view of whether possession became threat or just circulation.

Passing Network

Node size reflects involvement. Red nodes are players with repeated progressive contribution. Links are inferred from completed passes and the next same-team event in the feed.

Threat, Routes, Line Breaks

Threat Added Heat Map

Positional passing proxy v2, in points (value ×100), not expected goals. Completed passes earn destination minus start value, including negatives. Failed, blocked and offside passes with a known failure outcome lose their starting value; we do not add an assumed opponent counterattack cost. Cells show Orient minus opposition net value: completions at destination, failures at origin. Missing/invalid coordinates and unknown outcomes are excluded. Carries and take-ons are outside this pass-only model. Both sides assume increasing x is forward. Scored passes: Orient 449/461; opposition 383/389.

Line-Break Map

Only vertical passes through useful central lanes are shown. This isolates whether Orient actually broke the game open or simply moved around the outside.

Route Fingerprint

Lane-by-lane split of pass volume, progressive actions, entries and threat added. This makes the attacking identity visible rather than relying on eye-test memory.

Territory, Chances, Pressure

Shot Map

Pressing Heat Map

Territory Share

Phase Momentum

Press Payoff And Rest Defence

High-Regain Outcomes

Each high regain is tagged by the next attacking outcome: shot, box access, final-third entry, retention or loss. Work rate only matters if the next action has value.

Transition Leak Map

Advanced Orient losses are connected to the opposition danger that followed. This is the rest-defence audit: where attacks died and what came back.

Possession Chains

Best Attacking Chains

Start	Origin	Events	Prog	Box	xG	Net threat	Outcome
95:05	Progression / Central	2	1	0	0.69	0.27	Shot
28:01	Final third / Central	2	0	0	0.52	0.00	Shot
73:43	Final third / Central	3	0	0	0.37	0.00	Shot
57:50	Final third / Central	2	0	1	0.26	0.27	Shot
1:13	Final third / Left touchline	5	0	0	0.21	0.23	Shot
25:30	Final third / Central	2	0	0	0.20	0.00	Shot
47:32	Final third / Right half-space	2	0	0	0.19	0.00	Shot
53:30	Final third / Right half-space	3	0	0	0.18	0.04	Shot

Chains are inferred from consecutive same-team events. This is not a possession model replacement, but it is strong enough to find the attacks worth clipping first.

Player Impact Layer

Player	Events	Net threat	Line Breaks	Box Actions	High Regains	Shot Chain Actions
T. Simkin	62	217	4	0	0	0
D. Ballard	57	50	0	6	4	14
R. Edmonds-Green	49	38	0	1	2	2
D. Mitchell	20	37	0	0	0	0
O. Beckles	79	0	1	2	2	3
J. Moorhouse	10	-5	0	0	1	0
T. Adaramola	64	-30	0	0	5	4
S. Clare	88	-36	0	1	1	1
D. Happe	57	-66	0	0	0	0
J. Koroma	18	-70	0	0	0	0

Role-Adjusted Threat Context

Net passing threat /90 vs Attempted passing threat /90

This compares net passing value with positive intended passing gain, in points per 90. Both axes exclude carries and take-ons. Failed passes deduct starting value and backwards value changes remain negative; the solid horizontal line marks zero. The ratio labelled net/attempted can be negative and is not a completion probability. Wide isolation players can sit in the high-attempt/low-return quadrant without automatically being poor: the question is whether their risk is structurally necessary, well-supported and creating downstream instability. Short samples are lighter and should be used mainly as clipping prompts.

Forward / box threatC. WellensHigh attempt / low return

Inferred 84 mins; starter withdrawn from player-off event.

High chaos profile: the ambition is real, but the loss rate is high enough to require video review.

Minutes: 84
Net passing threat: -682.2
Attempted passing threat: 464.6
Attempted /90: 495.8
Adventurous: 32
Turnovers /90: 17.1

Build-up defenderD. HappeHigh attempt / low return

Inferred 97 mins; starter/full-match estimate from event timeline.

High chaos profile: the ambition is real, but the loss rate is high enough to require video review.

Minutes: 97
Net passing threat: -66.1
Attempted passing threat: 379.1
Attempted /90: 351.4
Adventurous: 23
Turnovers /90: 11.1

Wide isolation attackerA. AbdulaiHigh attempt / low return

Inferred 21 mins; very small sample. Treat this as a usage clue, not a verdict.

Do not read the low net passing threat as simple underperformance. This is a high-risk wide role: the player is trying to access value through crosses or ambitious passes, so the video question is decision quality and support timing.

Minutes: 21
Net passing threat: -197.8
Attempted passing threat: 99.1
Attempted /90: 415.5
Adventurous: 5
Turnovers /90: 12.6

Wide isolation attackerD. JaiyesimiHigh attempt / low return

Inferred 13 mins; very small sample. Treat this as a usage clue, not a verdict.

Minutes: 13
Net passing threat: -96.0
Attempted passing threat: 68.1
Attempted /90: 480.8
Adventurous: 5
Turnovers /90: 35.3

Role Context Table

Player	Inferred Role	Mins	Net passing threat	Attempted passing threat	Attempted /90	Realised /90	Ambition Gap /90	Role Adj. /90	Net / attempted	Adventurous	Turnovers	Quadrant
T. Simkin	Build-up defender	97	217.5	973.8	902.7	201.6	701.1	+156.6	22%	34	20	High attempt / high return
C. Wellens	Forward / box threat	84	-682.2	464.6	495.8	-728.0	1223.9	-534.6	-147%	32	16	High attempt / low return
O. Beckles	Build-up defender	97	0.2	481.6	446.5	0.2	446.3	-44.8	0%	32	14	High attempt / high return
S. Clare	Wide connector	97	-35.7	401.7	372.4	-33.1	405.5	+2.0	-9%	35	10	High attempt / high return
D. Mitchell	Build-up defender	22	37.3	120.2	496.0	154.1	342.0	+109.1	31%	7	1	High attempt / high return
D. Happe	Build-up defender	97	-66.1	379.1	351.4	-61.3	412.7	-106.2	-17%	23	12	High attempt / low return
I. El Mizouni	Wide isolation attacker	97	-193.1	334.1	309.7	-179.0	488.7	+62.6	-58%	35	10	Low attempt / low return
A. Abdulai	Wide isolation attacker	21	-197.8	99.1	415.5	-829.1	1244.6	-587.5	-200%	5	3	High attempt / low return
A. Connolly	Forward / box threat	97	-208.7	292.4	271.0	-193.5	464.5	+0.0	-71%	31	14	Low attempt / low return
T. Bakinson	Wide isolation attacker	84	-226.1	217.3	232.2	-241.6	473.8	+0.0	-104%	31	8	Low attempt / low return
R. Edmonds-Green	Build-up defender	75	37.6	186.5	223.0	45.0	178.0	+0.0	20%	12	6	Low attempt / efficient return
D. Ballard	Forward / box threat	79	49.9	192.1	218.9	56.9	162.0	+250.3	26%	23	6	Low attempt / efficient return

Quadrants and role adjustment are minutes-normalised. Raw totals still matter, but short substitute samples should be treated as clipping prompts rather than firm judgements.

Player Involvement

Player	Events	Completed Passes	Progressive Passes	Entries	Defensive Actions	Shots
I. El Mizouni	94	52	11	4	17	3
S. Clare	88	36	9	1	9	0
T. Bakinson	83	35	4	5	14	4
O. Beckles	79	31	9	3	7	2
A. Connolly	76	21	1	1	7	6
C. Wellens	72	20	2	2	10	3
T. Adaramola	64	21	2	1	16	0
T. Simkin	62	18	12	3	4	0
D. Ballard	57	17	3	2	5	7
D. Happe	57	23	5	4	0	0

Incident Timeline

1:13DispossessedR. Kpakio
1:18Attempt SavedD. Ballard
1:19SaveD. Lawlor
2:05DispossessedT. Adaramola
2:07Take OnIsaak Davies
2:08DispossessedT. Adaramola
3:24Take OnIsaak Davies
3:28DispossessedA. Connolly
3:30Take OnR. Colwill
3:38Take OnR. Colwill
3:50FoulR. Kpakio
3:50FoulC. Wellens
4:00FoulS. Clare
4:00FoulJ. Bagan
4:57Take OnIsaak Davies
4:58Take OnIsaak Davies
5:25FoulG. Osho
5:25FoulA. Connolly
+209 more incidentsavailable in source feed