Bolton Wanderers vs Leyton Orient

2026-01-24 Orient perspective 1770 match-play events 180 reportable incidents Expected-goals feed merged. xG coverage: 26/26 shots; xGOT coverage: 26/26 shots. Signed passing threat proxy · v2

Match Control Board

Passes383Opp 445

Pass Completion66%Opp 71%

Progressive Passes60Opp 83

Final Third Entries25Opp 25

Box Entries5Opp 4

Shots13Opp 13

xG0.57Opp 2.06

xGOT0.27Opp 1.47

High Regains21Opp 15

Performance Verdict

Reality checkMixed performance with clear tactical faults

There were usable passages, but enough structural warnings showed up to make the video review specific.

bad signalMidfield did not join the game up

The event profile points to a gap between defence and attack. Possession had to travel too far before it became pressure, and central progression was not reliable enough.

Evidence: Final-third entries 25 vs 25; line breaks 2 vs 12; average event height 44.3 vs 39.7.
Video Check: Freeze possessions after centre-back passes into midfield: was anyone receiving on the half-turn, or were midfielders hiding behind cover shadows?

poor signalBuild-up became hesitant, then hopeful

The ball was either recycled without enough progression or sent long without enough success. That is how defenders start playing anxious football.

Evidence: 58% of completed deep passes were low-progression; 51 of 96 long/direct attempts failed.
Video Check: Clip every deep possession of four or more passes and every failed long exit. Separate bad pass choice from no midfield option.

bad signalDefending was clumsy, not just busy

The volume and shot quality against point to repeated emergency defending. That is different from a controlled low block absorbing harmless territory.

Evidence: Conceded 13 shots, 2.06 xG and 1.47 xGOT.
Video Check: Clip every opposition shot and tag the source: failed clearance, second ball, foul/set piece, runner lost or midfield screen missing.

Bottom-Line Pattern Board

warning signalOrient's defensive shape became deeper and wider late

Defensive action height dropped from 49.0 to 29.1, while deep defensive actors rose from 3.4 to 7.0.

Bottom line: This is the data signature worth checking for a back-five/low-block shift: more bodies acting deep, especially if wide deep actors also rise.
Clip check: Freeze the first defensive possession in each phase and count the last line plus wide midfield recovery positions.

warning signalLine breaks are not being supported well enough

When Orient broke a central line, the next sequence reached the box or produced a shot on 0/2 occasions.

Bottom line: The first pass through pressure is happening, but the next action is not reliably turning it into box access.
Clip check: Check the third-man support around the receiver: was the runner close enough and was the next pass available?

warning signalWide territory is not enough by itself

Wide entries became box/shot sequences at 16%; central entries did so at 33%.

Bottom line: This is the classic false comfort: Orient get up the side of the pitch, but without central occupation or cutback access the attack stalls.
Clip check: Review whether the far-side winger, 10 and nearest 8 arrive in time when the ball reaches the wide player.

warning signalThe press needs a cleaner first pass

High regains became a shot, box entry or final-third entry on 7/21 occasions.

Bottom line: The first action after the regain is the coaching point; effort is only valuable if the next pass punishes the opponent.
Clip check: Clip the first two actions after each high regain: support distance, body shape and runner timing decide whether the press pays off.

warning signalInitial entries were contained, but defending still leaked shots

Only 8/29 pass entries became immediate danger, but the opposition still produced 13 shots and 2.06 xG.

Bottom line: The damage likely came after the first contact: second balls, set plays, fouls, failed clearances or loose marking after the initial entry.
Clip check: Review the first Orient action after the entry: clear contact, forced backwards pass, or only passive pressure.

Trigger Outcome Evidence

This moves the report from "events happened here" to "when this trigger occurred, this was the next useful or dangerous outcome". It is the evidence board for repeatable coaching points.

Style Shift By Phase

This flags whether Orient's event profile became deeper, more direct, or more defensively crowded by phase. It is a formation clue, not proof; the clip check confirms the actual shape.

Phase Style Audit

Phase	Orient Height	Opp Height	Def. Height	Deep Actors	Wide Deep	Direct Passes	High Regains	Read
0-15	53.7	29.1	57.9	3	2	32%	9	Direct exit phase
16-30	44.7	31.9	47.0	3	3	17%	4	High press phase
31-45	42.1	38.5	41.9	4	5	22%	2	Balanced phase
46-60	41.8	48.0	35.2	7	7	28%	4	Back-five/low-block review
61-75	38.6	45.7	34.4	7	5	41%	2	Back-five/low-block review
76-90+	43.7	44.9	25.6	7	7	21%	0	Back-five/low-block review

Use this table for claims such as "Orient dropped deeper", "the press faded", or "the team stopped trusting build-up". A back-five read requires video confirmation, but the event signature can tell us where to look.

Control Diagnostics

Threat Balance-6.24Opp: -13.8 | Orient median: -0.5 (61) | Below desired baseline.

The opposition had the higher net positional passing value after deductions. Inspect the contributions from completed moves and unsuccessful passes before attributing the difference to tactical control.

Line Breaks-10Opp: +12 | Orient median: -3 (61) | Below desired baseline.

Orient did not win the line-break battle. Review bravery and timing around the first central receiver.

Press Payoff7/21Opp: 13% | Orient median: 15% (61) | Above Orient baseline.

The press found contact but not enough payoff. Clip the next two actions after every regain.

Rest Defence1Orient median: 0 (61) | Above desired baseline.

1 advanced Orient losses turned into box or shot danger. That is the rest-defence audit list.

Final-Third Tilt56%Opp: 44% | Orient median: 48% (61) | Above Orient baseline.

Share of all final-third event volume owned by Orient. This is a better control proxy than raw possession.

Average Event Height44Opp: 39.7 | Orient median: 42.8 (61) | In normal Orient range.

Average Orient event location on the x-axis. Higher means the game was played closer to the opposition goal.

Benchmark Lens

Versus What?

Metric	Orient	Opponent / Against	Orient Median	Sample	Read	What It Means
Threat Balance	-6.2	-13.8	-0.5	61	Below desired baseline.	Orient minus opposition net positional passing value, including failed-pass costs and negative completed moves. Not a calibrated goal model or standalone result predictor.
Line Breaks	-10	+12	-3	61	Below desired baseline.	Central vertical passes that broke useful pitch lines versus those allowed.
Press Payoff	33%	13%	15%	61	Above Orient baseline.	Share of high regains that became a shot, box entry or final-third entry.
Rest Defence	1	-	0	61	Above desired baseline.	Advanced Orient losses that became opposition box or shot danger.
Final-Third Tilt	56%	44%	48%	61	Above Orient baseline.	Share of final-third event volume owned by Orient.
Average Event Height	44.3	39.7	42.8	61	In normal Orient range.	Average Orient event location on the x-axis. It is a territory indicator, not automatically a quality indicator.
Territory To Box	20%	16%	22%	61	In normal Orient range.	Share of final-third entries that became box entries.

Historical context loaded from 61 usable Orient event samples. Reads compare this match against Orient's own median, not a generic league assumption.

Average event height and final-third tilt are territory indicators. They become meaningful only when checked against Orient's own baseline, the opponent's match profile, and whether territory became box access, shots, or transition exposure.

Statistical Inference: Why?

High confidenceThe game appears to have tilted late

This suggests Orient either dropped too deep, lost control after changes, or became exposed while chasing/recovering the game.

Signal: Opposition generated 1.65 xG from 61' onwards, 80% of their match xG.
Video question: Review the first pass out after 60', midfield distances, and whether substitutions changed the team's ability to secure second balls.
Caveat: Late xG can be score-state driven. If Orient were chasing, some risk is expected.

Medium confidenceBuild-up may have become sterile around the back

That combination suggests Orient kept the ball in deeper areas without consistently finding the first pass through pressure.

Signal: 58% of completed deep passes were low-progression, with line breaks -10.
Video question: Clip deep possessions that last 4+ passes and ask who should have received on the half-turn.
Caveat: Safe recycling is not automatically bad; it becomes a problem when it is not followed by vertical access.

Medium confidenceDirect exits may not have stuck

If long exits fail repeatedly, the front line cannot breathe and the defence faces repeat waves.

Signal: 51 of 96 long/direct pass attempts failed.
Video question: Check whether long passes were planned outlets, pressure clearances, or poor pass selection.
Caveat: Some failed long balls are acceptable if they turn the opponent and allow the block to reset.

Medium confidencePenalty event heavily affects the scoreboard read

Penalty xG can dominate the scoreline without proving the opponent created superior open-play attacking structure.

Signal: Opposition penalty goal logged at 90:23.
Video question: Separate open-play chance quality from the foul/penalty incident.
Caveat: The data cannot judge whether the penalty was soft; it only tags the event type.

Medium confidenceFinal-third access looks too wide-channel dependent

Orient may be reaching territory without enough central occupation to create high-value chances.

Signal: 93% of entries came from wide or half-space lanes; central share 7%.
Video question: Check whether the 8/10/striker were available between lines or whether attacks were being forced outside.
Caveat: Wide access can be a deliberate plan if cutbacks and far-post runs are present.

Medium confidenceStrong start did not convert into sustained control

The match pattern may have shifted from early initiative to late survival.

Signal: 0-15 xG was Orient 0.07 vs opposition 0.01; from 61' onwards it was Orient 0.20 vs opposition 1.65.
Video question: Find the moment the territory changed: tactical adjustment, fatigue, substitution, or individual error.
Caveat: xG by phase is volatile in one match, especially if one big chance dominates.

Phase xG Audit

Phase	Orient xG	Opp xG	Orient Shots	Opp Shots
0-15	0.07	0.01	1	1
16-30	0.06	0.03	2	1
31-45	0.00	0.14	0	2
46-60	0.24	0.23	3	2
61-75	0.10	0.39	3	4
76-90+	0.09	1.26	4	3

This checks whether the match changed by phase: early control, late collapse, or isolated big chances.

Player Leak Responsibility

Player	Leaks	Danger Leaks	xG Against After Loss	Minute Span
T. Archibald	1	1	0.06	41'-41'
J. Simpson	2	0	0.00	4'-8'
A. Abdulai	2	0	0.00	51'-87'
T. Bakinson	1	0	0.00	1'-1'
C. Wellens	1	0	0.00	35'-35'
K. Casey	1	0	0.00	56'-56'
A. Matthews	1	0	0.00	93'-93'

This identifies the source event for dangerous transition leaks. It is a clipping queue, not a blame table.

Build-Up And Circulation Audit

Signal	Orient	Opponent
Deep low-progression pass share	58%	61%
Side/back completed pass share	59%	62%
Progressive pass rate	24%	26%
Line-break rate	0.8%	3.8%
Failed long/direct passes	51/96	64/126
Central completed pass share	25%	25%

This is the check for claims like "too deep", "too safe around the back", or "direct exits did not stick".

The Plain-English Read

Progression-23

Orient did not separate from the opposition in progression. That normally means the first central receiver, support angle or centre-back pass speed needs review.

Box Access+1

The final-third work became penalty-area access often enough to call the attacking process alive.

High Press+6

The high-regain signal supports the Wellens pressing identity. The next layer is whether those regains became shots before the block reset.

With The Ball

Pass Map

Red shows progressive passes, teal shows final-third entries, and gold shows box entries. This is the quickest view of whether possession became threat or just circulation.

Passing Network

Node size reflects involvement. Red nodes are players with repeated progressive contribution. Links are inferred from completed passes and the next same-team event in the feed.

Threat, Routes, Line Breaks

Threat Added Heat Map

Positional passing proxy v2, in points (value ×100), not expected goals. Completed passes earn destination minus start value, including negatives. Failed, blocked and offside passes with a known failure outcome lose their starting value; we do not add an assumed opponent counterattack cost. Cells show Orient minus opposition net value: completions at destination, failures at origin. Missing/invalid coordinates and unknown outcomes are excluded. Carries and take-ons are outside this pass-only model. Both sides assume increasing x is forward. Scored passes: Orient 383/394; opposition 446/456.

Line-Break Map

Only vertical passes through useful central lanes are shown. This isolates whether Orient actually broke the game open or simply moved around the outside.

Route Fingerprint

Lane-by-lane split of pass volume, progressive actions, entries and threat added. This makes the attacking identity visible rather than relying on eye-test memory.

Territory, Chances, Pressure

Shot Map

Pressing Heat Map

Territory Share

Phase Momentum

Press Payoff And Rest Defence

High-Regain Outcomes

Each high regain is tagged by the next attacking outcome: shot, box access, final-third entry, retention or loss. Work rate only matters if the next action has value.

Transition Leak Map

Advanced Orient losses are connected to the opposition danger that followed. This is the rest-defence audit: where attacks died and what came back.

Possession Chains

Best Attacking Chains

Start	Origin	Events	Prog	Box	xG	Net threat	Outcome
48:48	Final third / Right touchline	5	1	0	0.15	0.56	Shot
13:27	Final third / Left half-space	1	0	0	0.07	0.00	Shot
63:48	Final third / Left touchline	4	1	1	0.06	0.70	Shot
26:14	Final third / Left half-space	2	0	0	0.05	0.00	Shot
56:02	Final third / Right touchline	3	0	0	0.05	0.00	Shot
100:49	Final third / Central	1	0	0	0.04	0.00	Shot
48:45	Final third / Right half-space	3	0	0	0.04	0.10	Shot
61:36	Final third / Right half-space	2	0	0	0.03	-0.21	Shot

Chains are inferred from consecutive same-team events. This is not a possession model replacement, but it is strong enough to find the attacks worth clipping first.

Player Impact Layer

Player	Events	Net threat	Line Breaks	Box Actions	High Regains	Shot Chain Actions
K. Cahill	55	109	1	0	0	0
D. Happe	28	45	1	0	0	3
M. Craig	33	-39	0	1	0	1
O. O'Neill	75	-54	0	0	6	6
A. Matthews	14	-60	0	0	0	0
T. James	69	-76	0	2	2	0
J. Simpson	106	-134	0	0	2	5
D. Ballard	39	-172	0	1	0	2
T. Bakinson	49	-186	0	1	2	5
T. Archibald	83	-218	0	3	4	9

Role-Adjusted Threat Context

Net passing threat /90 vs Attempted passing threat /90

This compares net passing value with positive intended passing gain, in points per 90. Both axes exclude carries and take-ons. Failed passes deduct starting value and backwards value changes remain negative; the solid horizontal line marks zero. The ratio labelled net/attempted can be negative and is not a completion probability. Wide isolation players can sit in the high-attempt/low-return quadrant without automatically being poor: the question is whether their risk is structurally necessary, well-supported and creating downstream instability. Short samples are lighter and should be used mainly as clipping prompts.

Wide isolation attackerT. ArchibaldHigh attempt / low return

Inferred 101 mins; starter/full-match estimate from event timeline.

Do not read the low net passing threat as simple underperformance. This is a high-risk wide role: the player is trying to access value through crosses or ambitious passes, so the video question is decision quality and support timing.

Minutes: 101
Net passing threat: -217.9
Attempted passing threat: 504.6
Attempted /90: 449.6
Adventurous: 31
Turnovers /90: 16.9

Wide isolation attackerT. BakinsonHigh attempt / low return

Inferred 79 mins; starter withdrawn from player-off event.

Minutes: 79
Net passing threat: -186.1
Attempted passing threat: 265.4
Attempted /90: 301.0
Adventurous: 13
Turnovers /90: 11.3

Wide isolation attackerC. WellensHigh attempt / low return

Inferred 101 mins; starter/full-match estimate from event timeline.

Minutes: 101
Net passing threat: -474.1
Attempted passing threat: 336.0
Attempted /90: 299.4
Adventurous: 20
Turnovers /90: 13.4

Wide isolation attackerO. O'NeillLow attempt / efficient return

Inferred 101 mins; starter/full-match estimate from event timeline.

Read alongside role and video. The score follows fixed positional assumptions; interpretation depends on where, why and under what support conditions the passes were attempted.

Minutes: 101
Net passing threat: -53.7
Attempted passing threat: 232.3
Attempted /90: 207.0
Adventurous: 19
Turnovers /90: 6.2

Role Context Table

Player	Inferred Role	Mins	Net passing threat	Attempted passing threat	Attempted /90	Realised /90	Ambition Gap /90	Role Adj. /90	Net / attempted	Adventurous	Turnovers	Quadrant
M. Craig	Support player	35	-38.5	292.5	743.0	-97.8	840.8	+161.1	-13%	17	7	High attempt / high return
T. James	Wide connector	71	-76.1	576.7	730.0	-96.3	826.3	+113.8	-13%	31	17	High attempt / high return
T. Archibald	Wide isolation attacker	101	-217.9	504.6	449.6	-194.2	643.8	+0.0	-43%	31	19	High attempt / low return
J. Simpson	Build-up defender	101	-133.9	393.8	350.9	-119.3	470.2	-216.2	-34%	41	22	High attempt / high return
K. Cahill	Build-up defender	101	108.8	375.1	334.3	96.9	237.4	+0.0	29%	22	11	High attempt / high return
T. Bakinson	Wide isolation attacker	79	-186.1	265.4	301.0	-211.1	512.1	-16.9	-70%	13	10	High attempt / low return
C. Wellens	Wide isolation attacker	101	-474.1	336.0	299.4	-422.5	721.9	-228.3	-141%	20	15	High attempt / low return
D. Mitchell	Support player	66	-220.0	190.9	262.0	-301.9	564.0	-43.0	-115%	18	10	Low attempt / low return
K. Casey	Support player	101	-290.5	279.2	248.8	-258.9	507.7	+0.0	-104%	25	12	Low attempt / low return
O. O'Neill	Wide isolation attacker	101	-53.7	232.3	207.0	-47.9	254.8	+146.3	-23%	19	7	Low attempt / efficient return
D. Happe	Build-up defender	30	45.3	50.3	151.3	136.4	14.9	+39.4	90%	3	0	Low attempt / efficient return
A. Abdulai	Wide connector	101	-235.7	147.1	131.0	-210.0	341.1	+0.0	-160%	21	13	Low attempt / low return

Quadrants and role adjustment are minutes-normalised. Raw totals still matter, but short substitute samples should be treated as clipping prompts rather than firm judgements.

Player Involvement

Player	Events	Completed Passes	Progressive Passes	Entries	Defensive Actions	Shots
J. Simpson	106	44	11	6	7	1
T. Archibald	83	13	5	6	14	4
K. Casey	83	28	6	2	5	2
O. O'Neill	75	19	1	2	7	1
T. James	69	24	9	4	4	0
A. Abdulai	65	20	2	2	10	1
D. Mitchell	59	15	2	1	11	0
C. Wellens	58	18	1	2	5	1
K. Cahill	55	21	11	0	3	0
T. Bakinson	49	18	3	2	9	2

Incident Timeline

1:57Take OnT. Gale
3:35FoulJ. Osei-Tutu
3:35FoulO. O'Neill
4:29DispossessedC. Wellens
4:43ErrorK. Cahill
4:45MissJ. McAtee
5:50DispossessedT. Archibald
6:25DispossessedD. Ballard
6:28DispossessedD. Ballard
6:30DispossessedJ. Osei-Tutu
6:51FoulBolton Wanderers
6:51FoulA. Abdulai
7:52Take OnT. Archibald
9:43Take OnT. Gale
11:32Take OnM. Conway
12:06Take OnT. Archibald
12:10FoulT. Archibald
12:10FoulJ. Osei-Tutu
+162 more incidentsavailable in source feed