Leyton Orient vs Bradford City

2026-09-08 Orient perspective 1768 match-play events 218 reportable incidents Expected-goals feed merged. xG coverage: 33/33 shots; xGOT coverage: 33/33 shots. Signed passing threat proxy · v2 24 video clips

Match Control Board

Passes428Opp 395

Pass Completion68%Opp 67%

Progressive Passes69Opp 80

Final Third Entries25Opp 27

Box Entries12Opp 10

Shots16Opp 17

xG1.58Opp 2.18

xGOT0.71Opp 3.66

High Regains14Opp 17

Performance Verdict

Reality checkMixed performance with clear tactical faults

There were usable passages, but enough structural warnings showed up to make the video review specific.

bad signalMidfield did not join the game up

The event profile points to a gap between defence and attack. Possession had to travel too far before it became pressure, and central progression was not reliable enough.

Evidence: Final-third entries 25 vs 27; line breaks 4 vs 6; average event height 44.6 vs 46.8.
Video Check: Freeze possessions after centre-back passes into midfield: was anyone receiving on the half-turn, or were midfielders hiding behind cover shadows?

poor signalBuild-up became hesitant, then hopeful

The ball was either recycled without enough progression or sent long without enough success. That is how defenders start playing anxious football.

Evidence: 54% of completed deep passes were low-progression; 70 of 117 long/direct attempts failed.
Video Check: Clip every deep possession of four or more passes and every failed long exit. Separate bad pass choice from no midfield option.

bad signalDefending was clumsy, not just busy

The volume and shot quality against point to repeated emergency defending. That is different from a controlled low block absorbing harmless territory.

Evidence: Conceded 17 shots, 2.18 xG and 3.66 xGOT.
Video Check: Clip every opposition shot and tag the source: failed clearance, second ball, foul/set piece, runner lost or midfield screen missing.

Wide By Design Or Default?

One-off tactical diagnostic Wide looks like the escape route

Orient are not simply using width as a planned acceleration. The first pass from the deep line is going outside, but the next connection is not arriving often enough to join the attack.

Sample63deep build-up passes

First pass wide75%wide/down-line outlet

First pass central14%midfield/interior outlet

Wide payoff15%pressure within 3 actions

First Outlet Audit

First Outlet	Uses	Share	Inside Next	Pressure	Died
Into midfield	9	14%	100%	11%	78%
Wide outlet	26	41%	12%	15%	85%
Direct to wing	17	27%	12%	6%	94%
Down the line	4	6%	50%	50%	50%
Long/direct	2	3%	50%	0%	100%
Recycle/back	5	8%	20%	0%	100%

Central Receiver Audit

Receiver	Role	Deep Receipts	Forward Next	Reset	Lost
I. El Mizouni	Wide connector	3	0%	100%	0%
F. Stevens	Wide isolation attacker	2	50%	50%	0%
T. Springett	Wide connector	1	0%	0%	100%

Deep build-up actors sampled: Chinedu, Hayden, Olowu, Forrester. Inside bounce from early width: 15%; wide possessions dying before pressure: 85%. Video check: freeze the wide receipt and ask whether the near-side 8 is available beyond the cover shadow, or whether the ball has simply been pushed outside because midfield was not connected.

Bottom-Line Pattern Board

warning signalOrient lost territory as the game went on

Average Orient event height fell from 44.4 before half-time to 38.4 late.

Bottom line: This does not prove tactical retreat, but it shows the game was being played further from the opposition goal.
Clip check: Freeze the first defensive possession in each phase and count the last line plus wide midfield recovery positions.

warning signalLine breaks are not being supported well enough

When Orient broke a central line, the next sequence reached the box or produced a shot on 1/4 occasions.

Bottom line: The first pass through pressure is happening, but the next action is not reliably turning it into box access.
Clip check: Check the third-man support around the receiver: was the runner close enough and was the next pass available?

warning signalWide territory is not enough by itself

Wide entries became box/shot sequences at 29%; central entries did so at 83%.

Bottom line: This is the classic false comfort: Orient get up the side of the pitch, but without central occupation or cutback access the attack stalls.
Clip check: Review whether the far-side winger, 10 and nearest 8 arrive in time when the ball reaches the wide player.

warning signalInitial entries were contained, but defending still leaked shots

Only 12/36 pass entries became immediate danger, but the opposition still produced 17 shots and 2.18 xG.

Bottom line: The damage likely came after the first contact: second balls, set plays, fouls, failed clearances or loose marking after the initial entry.
Clip check: Review the first Orient action after the entry: clear contact, forced backwards pass, or only passive pressure.

positive signalThe press is creating usable attacks

High regains became a shot, box entry or final-third entry on 5/14 occasions.

Bottom line: The first action after the regain is the coaching point; effort is only valuable if the next pass punishes the opponent.
Clip check: Clip the first two actions after each high regain: support distance, body shape and runner timing decide whether the press pays off.

Trigger Outcome Evidence

This moves the report from "events happened here" to "when this trigger occurred, this was the next useful or dangerous outcome". It is the evidence board for repeatable coaching points.

Style Shift By Phase

This flags whether Orient's event profile became deeper, more direct, or more defensively crowded by phase. It is a formation clue, not proof; the clip check confirms the actual shape.

Phase Style Audit

Phase	Orient Height	Opp Height	Def. Height	Deep Actors	Wide Deep	Direct Passes	High Regains	Read
0-15	38.8	52.3	36.4	10	9	26%	4	Back-five/low-block review
16-30	51.1	41.9	35.8	6	6	21%	0	Back-five/low-block review
31-45	44.7	46.2	36.9	7	6	38%	4	Back-five/low-block review
46-60	52.5	37.6	37.1	10	8	25%	2	Back-five/low-block review
61-75	21.5	63.9	14.6	7	7	44%	1	Back-five/low-block review
76-90+	49.1	41.0	40.8	7	5	25%	3	High press phase

Use this table for claims such as "Orient dropped deeper", "the press faded", or "the team stopped trusting build-up". A back-five read requires video confirmation, but the event signature can tell us where to look.

Control Diagnostics

Threat Balance-0.53Opp: -17.1 | Orient median: -3.2 (7) | Above Orient baseline.

The opposition had the higher net positional passing value after deductions. Inspect the contributions from completed moves and unsuccessful passes before attributing the difference to tactical control.

Line Breaks-2Opp: +6 | Orient median: -3 (7) | Above Orient baseline.

Orient did not win the line-break battle. Review bravery and timing around the first central receiver.

Press Payoff5/14Opp: 24% | Orient median: 11% (7) | Above Orient baseline.

The high press had attacking value, not just effort. Regains were becoming entries, box access or shots often enough to matter.

Rest Defence0Orient median: 1 (7) | Below Orient baseline.

There were transition leaks, but they were mostly contained before becoming major danger.

Final-Third Tilt48%Opp: 52% | Orient median: 50% (7) | In normal Orient range.

Share of all final-third event volume owned by Orient. This is a better control proxy than raw possession.

Average Event Height45Opp: 46.8 | Orient median: 41.9 (7) | In normal Orient range.

Average Orient event location on the x-axis. Higher means the game was played closer to the opposition goal.

Benchmark Lens

Versus What?

Metric	Orient	Opponent / Against	Orient Median	Sample	Read	What It Means
Threat Balance	-0.5	-17.1	-3.2	7	Above Orient baseline.	Orient minus opposition net positional passing value, including failed-pass costs and negative completed moves. Not a calibrated goal model or standalone result predictor.
Line Breaks	-2	+6	-3	7	Above Orient baseline.	Central vertical passes that broke useful pitch lines versus those allowed.
Press Payoff	36%	24%	11%	7	Above Orient baseline.	Share of high regains that became a shot, box entry or final-third entry.
Rest Defence	0	-	1	7	Below Orient baseline.	Advanced Orient losses that became opposition box or shot danger.
Final-Third Tilt	48%	52%	50%	7	In normal Orient range.	Share of final-third event volume owned by Orient.
Average Event Height	44.6	46.8	41.9	7	In normal Orient range.	Average Orient event location on the x-axis. It is a territory indicator, not automatically a quality indicator.
Territory To Box	48%	37%	30%	7	Above Orient baseline.	Share of final-third entries that became box entries.

Historical context loaded from 7 usable Orient event samples. Reads compare this match against Orient's own median, not a generic league assumption.

Average event height and final-third tilt are territory indicators. They become meaningful only when checked against Orient's own baseline, the opponent's match profile, and whether territory became box access, shots, or transition exposure.

Statistical Inference: Why?

High confidenceThe game appears to have tilted late

This suggests Orient either dropped too deep, lost control after changes, or became exposed while chasing/recovering the game.

Signal: Opposition generated 1.62 xG from 61' onwards, 74% of their match xG.
Video question: Review the first pass out after 60', midfield distances, and whether substitutions changed the team's ability to secure second balls.
Caveat: Late xG can be score-state driven. If Orient were chasing, some risk is expected.

Medium confidenceBuild-up may have become sterile around the back

That combination suggests Orient kept the ball in deeper areas without consistently finding the first pass through pressure.

Signal: 54% of completed deep passes were low-progression, with line breaks -2.
Video question: Clip deep possessions that last 4+ passes and ask who should have received on the half-turn.
Caveat: Safe recycling is not automatically bad; it becomes a problem when it is not followed by vertical access.

Medium confidenceDirect exits may not have stuck

If long exits fail repeatedly, the front line cannot breathe and the defence faces repeat waves.

Signal: 70 of 117 long/direct pass attempts failed.
Video question: Check whether long passes were planned outlets, pressure clearances, or poor pass selection.
Caveat: Some failed long balls are acceptable if they turn the opponent and allow the block to reset.

Medium confidenceFinal-third access looks too wide-channel dependent

Orient may be reaching territory without enough central occupation to create high-value chances.

Signal: 88% of entries came from wide or half-space lanes; central share 12%.
Video question: Check whether the 8/10/striker were available between lines or whether attacks were being forced outside.
Caveat: Wide access can be a deliberate plan if cutbacks and far-post runs are present.

Medium confidenceStrong start did not convert into sustained control

The match pattern may have shifted from early initiative to late survival.

Signal: 0-15 xG was Orient 0.73 vs opposition 0.15; from 61' onwards it was Orient 0.35 vs opposition 1.62.
Video question: Find the moment the territory changed: tactical adjustment, fatigue, substitution, or individual error.
Caveat: xG by phase is volatile in one match, especially if one big chance dominates.

Phase xG Audit

Phase	Orient xG	Opp xG	Orient Shots	Opp Shots
0-15	0.73	0.15	2	3
16-30	0.06	0.00	2	0
31-45	0.20	0.29	3	3
46-60	0.24	0.12	4	1
61-75	0.00	0.38	0	5
76-90+	0.35	1.24	5	5

This checks whether the match changed by phase: early control, late collapse, or isolated big chances.

Player Leak Responsibility

Player	Leaks	Minute Span
A. Dobra	2	37'-47'
F. Stevens	2	50'-83'
T. Springett	1	4'-4'
S. Clare	1	27'-27'
N. Oyekunle	1	55'-55'
C. Wellens	1	66'-66'

This identifies the source event for dangerous transition leaks. It is a clipping queue, not a blame table.

Build-Up And Circulation Audit

Signal	Orient	Opponent
Deep low-progression pass share	54%	40%
Side/back completed pass share	61%	54%
Progressive pass rate	24%	30%
Line-break rate	1.4%	2.3%
Failed long/direct passes	70/117	59/118
Central completed pass share	24%	18%

This is the check for claims like "too deep", "too safe around the back", or "direct exits did not stick".

Video Review Board

Big Chance9:0816sxG 0.66

9:08 Attempt Saved: N. Oyekunle

Attempt Saved by N. Oyekunle. xG 0.66.

Open MP4

24 clips generated

The report is no longer just describing the match. Every key claim now has a video queue behind it: goals, big chances, transition leaks, high-regain payoff and line-breaking possession.

Use this section as the coaching audit: does the event-data diagnosis survive the actual body shape, support angle, pressure and recovery run on the video?

Scoreline & Chance State

Big Chance86:3016sxG 0.56

86:30 Attempt Saved: N. Powell

Attempt Saved by N. Powell. xG 0.56.

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Big Chance86:3216sxG 0.37

86:32 Attempt Saved: A. Phillips

Attempt Saved by A. Phillips. xG 0.37.

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Goal44:4916sxG 0.22

44:49 Goal: W. Swan

Goal by W. Swan. xG 0.22.

Open MP4

Big Chance69:4116sxG 0.15

69:41 Post: N. Powell

Post by N. Powell. xG 0.15.

Open MP4

Goal57:0116sxG 0.12

57:01 Goal: S. Humphrys

Goal by S. Humphrys. xG 0.12.

Open MP4

Goal87:2116sxG 0.11

87:21 Goal: N. Powell

Goal by N. Powell. xG 0.11.

Open MP4

Goal37:5016s

37:50 Own goal: M. Gillesphey

Own goal by M. Gillesphey. xG is not assigned to the defending team.

Open MP4

Deep Error Shot86:3026sxG 0.56

86:20 deep loss: F. Stevens to N. Powell shot

Pass by F. Stevens in the defensive half led to attempt saved by N. Powell. xG against 0.56.

Open MP4

Transition Leak Review

Transition Leak Progression4:2923s

4:22 transition leak: T. Springett

Orient loss by T. Springett led to progression within the next sequence.

Open MP4

Transition Leak Progression28:1840s

27:54 transition leak: S. Clare

Orient loss by S. Clare led to progression within the next sequence.

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Transition Leak Shot37:5018s

37:48 transition leak: A. Dobra

Orient loss by A. Dobra led to shot within the next sequence.

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Transition Leak Progression48:0527s

47:54 transition leak: A. Dobra

Orient loss by A. Dobra led to progression within the next sequence.

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Transition Leak Progression50:2121s

50:16 transition leak: F. Stevens

Orient loss by F. Stevens led to progression within the next sequence.

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Transition Leak Progression56:0734s

55:49 transition leak: N. Oyekunle

Orient loss by N. Oyekunle led to progression within the next sequence.

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Transition Leak Progression66:4326s

66:33 transition leak: C. Wellens

Orient loss by C. Wellens led to progression within the next sequence.

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Transition Leak Progression83:2926s

83:19 transition leak: F. Stevens

Orient loss by F. Stevens led to progression within the next sequence.

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Pressing Payoff

High Regain Shot40:5216s

40:52 high regain: I. El Mizouni

High regain by I. El Mizouni led to shot within 3 actions.

Open MP4

High Regain Shot45:5016s

45:50 high regain: N. Oyekunle

High regain by N. Oyekunle led to shot within 3 actions.

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High Regain Shot45:1316s

45:13 high regain: S. Clare

High regain by S. Clare led to shot within 1 actions.

Open MP4

Build-Up & Line Breaks

Line Break88:2816s

88:28 line break: N. Phillips

Central/progressive line-break pass by N. Phillips. xT+ 28.4.

Open MP4

Line Break24:2816s

24:28 line break: N. Oyekunle

Central/progressive line-break pass by N. Oyekunle. xT+ 20.9.

Open MP4

Line Break35:5516s

35:55 line break: P. Chinedu

Central/progressive line-break pass by P. Chinedu. xT+ 10.8.

Open MP4

Line Break48:0816s

48:08 line break: N. Phillips

Central/progressive line-break pass by N. Phillips. xT+ 10.1.

Open MP4

The Plain-English Read

Progression-11

Orient did not separate from the opposition in progression. That normally means the first central receiver, support angle or centre-back pass speed needs review.

Box Access+2

The final-third work became penalty-area access often enough to call the attacking process alive.

High Press-3

The press did not show strongly enough in high regains. Check the squeeze behind the forwards, not just the forwards' work rate.

With The Ball

Pass Map

Red shows progressive passes, teal shows final-third entries, and gold shows box entries. This is the quickest view of whether possession became threat or just circulation.

Passing Network

Node size reflects involvement. Red nodes are players with repeated progressive contribution. Links are inferred from completed passes and the next same-team event in the feed.

Threat, Routes, Line Breaks

Threat Added Heat Map

Positional passing proxy v2, in points (value ×100), not expected goals. Completed passes earn destination minus start value, including negatives. Failed, blocked and offside passes with a known failure outcome lose their starting value; we do not add an assumed opponent counterattack cost. Cells show Orient minus opposition net value: completions at destination, failures at origin. Missing/invalid coordinates and unknown outcomes are excluded. Carries and take-ons are outside this pass-only model. Both sides assume increasing x is forward. Scored passes: Orient 431/439; opposition 396/410.

Line-Break Map

Only vertical passes through useful central lanes are shown. This isolates whether Orient actually broke the game open or simply moved around the outside.

Route Fingerprint

Lane-by-lane split of pass volume, progressive actions, entries and threat added. This makes the attacking identity visible rather than relying on eye-test memory.

Territory, Chances, Pressure

Shot Map

Pressing Heat Map

Territory Share

Phase Momentum

Press Payoff And Rest Defence

High-Regain Outcomes

Each high regain is tagged by the next attacking outcome: shot, box access, final-third entry, retention or loss. Work rate only matters if the next action has value.

Transition Leak Map

Advanced Orient losses are connected to the opposition danger that followed. This is the rest-defence audit: where attacks died and what came back.

Possession Chains

Best Attacking Chains

Start	Origin	Events	Prog	Box	xG	Net threat	Outcome
8:33	Final third / Right half-space	5	1	1	0.73	0.38	Shot
89:27	Final third / Central	4	1	1	0.11	0.41	Shot
40:52	Progression / Right half-space	4	1	1	0.11	0.47	Shot
45:57	Progression / Right touchline	3	1	0	0.10	0.67	Shot
88:42	Final third / Central	1	0	0	0.10	0.00	Shot
91:53	Final third / Left half-space	1	0	0	0.09	0.00	Shot
52:59	Final third / Central	2	0	0	0.07	0.00	Shot
36:54	Final third / Right touchline	5	1	1	0.07	0.48	Shot

Chains are inferred from consecutive same-team events. This is not a possession model replacement, but it is strong enough to find the attacks worth clipping first.

Player Impact Layer

Player	Events	Net threat	Line Breaks	Box Actions	High Regains	Shot Chain Actions
I. Hayden	49	213	0	2	0	2
N. Phillips	69	92	2	0	0	0
Y. Akhamrich	23	52	0	2	0	3
D. Scarlett	12	0	0	2	0	3
W. Forrester	27	-36	0	1	0	2
P. Chinedu	59	-39	1	0	0	2
N. Oyekunle	54	-57	1	2	2	4
J. Olowu	43	-45	0	0	0	0
F. Stevens	64	-112	0	2	1	1
T. Archibald	57	-166	0	1	2	5

Role-Adjusted Threat Context

Net passing threat /90 vs Attempted passing threat /90

This compares net passing value with positive intended passing gain, in points per 90. Both axes exclude carries and take-ons. Failed passes deduct starting value and backwards value changes remain negative; the solid horizontal line marks zero. The ratio labelled net/attempted can be negative and is not a completion probability. Wide isolation players can sit in the high-attempt/low-return quadrant without automatically being poor: the question is whether their risk is structurally necessary, well-supported and creating downstream instability. Short samples are lighter and should be used mainly as clipping prompts.

Wide isolation attackerF. StevensHigh attempt / low return

Inferred 49 mins; partial-match sample. Totals need minutes context.

Do not read the low net passing threat as simple underperformance. This is a high-risk wide role: the player is trying to access value through crosses or ambitious passes, so the video question is decision quality and support timing.

Minutes: 49
Net passing threat: -111.6
Attempted passing threat: 715.9
Attempted /90: 1307.3
Adventurous: 32
Turnovers /90: 32.9

Wide isolation attackerA. DobraHigh attempt / low return

Inferred 66 mins; partial-match sample. Totals need minutes context.

Minutes: 66
Net passing threat: -309.0
Attempted passing threat: 399.7
Attempted /90: 546.5
Adventurous: 20
Turnovers /90: 15.0

Wide isolation attackerT. ArchibaldHigh attempt / low return

Inferred 66 mins; partial-match sample. Totals need minutes context.

Minutes: 66
Net passing threat: -165.9
Attempted passing threat: 387.2
Attempted /90: 528.4
Adventurous: 20
Turnovers /90: 15.0

Build-up defenderJ. MorrisHigh attempt / low return

Inferred 94 mins; starter/full-match estimate from event timeline.

Read alongside role and video. The score follows fixed positional assumptions; interpretation depends on where, why and under what support conditions the passes were attempted.

Minutes: 94
Net passing threat: -247.1
Attempted passing threat: 467.4
Attempted /90: 446.2
Adventurous: 29
Turnovers /90: 13.4

Role Context Table

Player	Inferred Role	Mins	Net passing threat	Attempted passing threat	Attempted /90	Realised /90	Ambition Gap /90	Role Adj. /90	Net / attempted	Adventurous	Turnovers	Quadrant
F. Stevens	Wide isolation attacker	49	-111.6	715.9	1307.3	-203.8	1511.1	+22.7	-16%	32	18	High attempt / low return
I. Hayden	Build-up defender	45	212.8	435.1	870.2	425.7	444.5	+487.4	49%	18	7	High attempt / high return
N. Phillips	Build-up defender	94	92.1	596.2	569.1	87.9	481.1	+149.6	15%	24	19	High attempt / high return
A. Dobra	Wide isolation attacker	66	-309.0	399.7	546.5	-422.5	969.0	-196.0	-77%	20	11	High attempt / low return
T. Archibald	Wide isolation attacker	66	-165.9	387.2	528.4	-226.5	754.8	+0.0	-43%	20	11	High attempt / low return
J. Morris	Build-up defender	94	-247.1	467.4	446.2	-235.9	682.1	-174.2	-53%	29	14	High attempt / low return
Y. Akhamrich	Wide isolation attacker	28	52.4	147.7	472.9	167.7	305.2	+394.2	35%	7	2	High attempt / high return
P. Chinedu	Build-up defender	66	-38.5	322.6	438.8	-52.4	491.2	+9.3	-12%	22	13	High attempt / high return
T. Springett	Wide connector	94	-364.0	362.8	346.3	-347.4	693.8	-166.0	-100%	23	13	Low attempt / low return
I. El Mizouni	Wide connector	94	-190.1	361.7	345.3	-181.5	526.8	+0.0	-53%	33	15	Low attempt / efficient return
C. Wellens	Wide isolation attacker	28	-251.6	101.0	319.3	-795.3	1114.7	-568.9	-249%	6	6	Low attempt / low return
S. Clare	Support player	94	-303.9	299.6	286.0	-290.1	576.1	-108.6	-101%	29	13	Low attempt / low return

Quadrants and role adjustment are minutes-normalised. Raw totals still matter, but short substitute samples should be treated as clipping prompts rather than firm judgements.

Player Involvement

Player	Events	Completed Passes	Progressive Passes	Entries	Defensive Actions	Shots
I. El Mizouni	96	41	5	3	20	1
J. Morris	96	21	6	1	10	1
S. Clare	83	38	6	3	14	0
A. Dobra	73	22	4	4	17	3
N. Phillips	69	16	8	1	1	0
T. Springett	66	22	5	1	6	1
F. Stevens	64	22	8	8	3	0
P. Chinedu	59	21	6	1	5	0
T. Archibald	57	15	1	1	7	2
N. Oyekunle	54	20	2	3	6	2

Incident Timeline

0:43DispossessedT. Archibald
0:50Attempt SavedS. Humphrys
0:51SaveP. Chinedu
0:53Corner AwardedP. Chinedu
0:53Corner AwardedS. Humphrys
1:27Corner AwardedJ. Morris
1:27Corner AwardedH. Cartwright
4:31Take OnK. Morgan
5:55DispossessedT. Archibald
6:06FoulI. Hayden
6:06FoulW. Swan
6:25Take OnP. Chinedu
6:25ErrorP. Chinedu
6:30Attempt SavedS. Humphrys
6:30SaveI. El Mizouni
6:36DispossessedA. Dobra
6:38Take OnR. Welch
8:33Corner AwardedM. Gillesphey
+200 more incidentsavailable in source feed